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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 70

Denver Broncos 0 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 3-R.Wilson up the middle to DEN 32 for 2 yards (79-J.Cominsky). DEN-69-M.McGlinchey was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.32 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 70, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 28, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model