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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Saturday 2023-12-16 · 20:15 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

DEN
38.0%
DET
62.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (DEN): -0.043 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

DEN 21
–
DET 24
Projected margin: DET by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

DEN

Nik Bonitto LB Out Knee
Greg Dulcich TE Out Hamstring
P.J. Locke S Questionable Neck

DET

Hendon Hooker QB Out Knee
Taylor Decker T Questionable Back
Benito Jones DT Questionable Neck
Frank Ragnow C Questionable Knee
Josh Reynolds WR Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 17
–
DET 42

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 12:41 TD DET (12:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – DET 6
  • Q2 08:20 TD DET (8:20) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – DET 13
  • Q2 00:24 TD DET (:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – DET 20
  • Q3 10:41 TD DEN (10:41) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 17-L.Humphrey for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [34-A.Anzalone]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DEN 6 – DET 21
  • Q3 07:03 TD DET (7:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – DET 27
  • Q3 00:46 FG DEN (:46) 16-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 10 – DET 28
  • Q4 12:17 TD DET (12:17) 26-J.Gibbs left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – DET 34
  • Q4 06:31 TD DEN (6:31) (No Huddle) 3-R.Wilson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 16 – DET 35
  • Q4 02:26 TD DET (2:26) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 17 – DET 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 35%

    (13:06) 3-J.Fox punts 21 yards to DEN 29, Center-43-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 12 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 63%

    (9:42) 3-J.Fox punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to DET 27, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 11-K.Raymond to DET 27 for no gain (37-R.Moss).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 38%

    (5:11) 3-J.Fox punts 33 yards to DEN 16, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (6:29) 3-R.Wilson up the middle to DEN 32 for 2 yards (79-J.Cominsky). DEN-69-M.McGlinchey was injured during the play.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to DET 19, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (:46) 16-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:05) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to DET 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond. PENALTY on DEN-1-Tr.Smith, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DET 8.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 19 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:29) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to DEN 38, Center-43-J.McQuaide, downed by DET-44-M.Rodriguez.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%

    (6:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-S.Perine up the middle to DET 1 for 12 yards (31-K.Joseph).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 10 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 97%

    (2:26) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.