Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 68

Denver Broncos 0 – Detroit Lions 14

(4:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to DET 19, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.91 EP
65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 68, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model