4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 50

Detroit Lions 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 3-J.Fox punts 21 yards to DEN 29, Center-43-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.46 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 50, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model