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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 5

Denver Broncos 7 – Detroit Lions 28

What Actually Happened

(:46) 16-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 5, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP