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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 39

Detroit Lions 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 3-J.Fox punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.49 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP