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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 49

Detroit Lions 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 3-J.Fox punts 33 yards to DEN 16, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.60 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model