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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 64

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to LV 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 3-D.Carter. PENALTY on LAC-36-J.Taylor, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LV 17.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.81 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 64, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 22, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP