LAC @ LV — 4th & Data

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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley

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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce

Thursday 2023-12-14 · 20:15 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 36.0

Win Probability

LAC

46.1%

53.9%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

LV offense: -0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
LAC offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
LV defense: -0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised
QB edge to LV: Aidan O'Connell (LV) -0.155 vs Easton Stick (LAC) -0.259 EPA/dropback (LAC starting Easton Stick in place of Justin Herbert)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 21

–

LV 22

Projected margin: LV by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

LAC

Keenan Allen WR Out Heel

Deane Leonard CB Out Ankle

Otito Ogbonnia DT Questionable Knee

Amen Ogbongbemiga LB Questionable Hamstring

Donald Parham TE Questionable Shoulder

Nicholas Williams DT Questionable Shoulder

LV

Andre James C Out Ankle

Kolton Miller T Out Shoulder

Davante Adams WR Questionable Illness

Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Quadricep

Brandon Facyson CB Questionable Shin

Adam Butler DT Questionable Ankle

Maxx Crosby DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 21

–

LV 63

Prediction missed by 41 pts on margin, 41 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:13 TD LV (8:13) 71-J.Herron reported in as eligible. 35-Z.White left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – LV 6
Q1 04:47 TD LV (4:47) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 11-T.Tucker for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. LAC 0 – LV 13
Q1 03:13 TD LV (3:13) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep right to 16-J.Meyers for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – LV 20
Q2 09:22 TD LV (9:22) 4-A.O'Connell pass short right to 87-M.Mayer for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – LV 27
Q2 03:56 TD LV (3:56) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 34-B.Bolden. 34-B.Bolden left end for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – LV 34
Q2 00:36 TD LV (:36) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 11-T.Tucker for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – LV 41
Q3 10:47 TD LV (10:47) (Shotgun) 71-J.Herron reported in as eligible. 16-J.Meyers pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – LV 48
Q3 10:37 TD LAC (10:37) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass deep left to 5-J.Palmer for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – LV 49
Q3 00:12 TD LV (:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-E.Stick sacked at LAC 45 for -9 yards (51-M.Koonce). FUMBLES (51-M.Koonce) [51-M.Koonce], RECOVERED by LV-95-J.Jenkins at LAC 44. 95-J.Jenkins for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – LV 55
Q4 14:35 TD LV (14:35) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass short right intended for 30-A.Ekeler INTERCEPTED by 18-J.Jones at LAC 16. 18-J.Jones for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – LV 62
Q4 08:43 TD LAC (8:43) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass short left to 82-A.Erickson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – LV 63
Q4 02:42 TD LAC (2:42) (Shotgun) 2-E.Stick pass short left to 1-Q.Johnston for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 20 – LV 63

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 64

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP

p(convert) 53%

(13:44) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to LV 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 3-D.Carter. PENALTY on LAC-36-J.Taylor, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LV 17.
Q2 LAC 4th & 12 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(15:00) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to LV 18, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.
Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 74

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP

p(convert) 60%

(13:21) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to LAC 21, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(10:58) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to LV 17, Center-47-J.Harris. 3-D.Carter to LV 30 for 13 yards (20-D.Marlowe; 47-J.Harris).
Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(9:55) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to LAC 11, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis to LAC 16 for 5 yards (19-D.Turner). FUMBLES (19-D.Turner), RECOVERED by LV-19-D.Turner at LAC 14.
Q2 LAC 4th & 5 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(7:32) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to LV 24, Center-47-J.Harris. 3-D.Carter to LV 35 for 11 yards (40-S.Anderson; 47-J.Harris).
Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 51

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 33%

(2:00) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LAC 49 for no gain (5-D.Deablo, 90-J.Tillery). Penalty on LAC-7-G.Everett, Offensive Offside, declined.
Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(8:26) 6-A.Cole punts 68 yards to LAC 7, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis to LAC 10 for 3 yards (19-D.Turner; 45-J.Johnson).
Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 82

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP

p(convert) 62%

(6:37) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to LV 22, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.
Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 51%

(3:34) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to LAC 20, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 68

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP

p(convert) 70%

(7:10) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to LAC 17, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on LAC-84-S.Smartt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 45.
Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 70%

(:37) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to LAC 22, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.