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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to LAC 11, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Davis to LAC 16 for 5 yards (19-D.Turner). FUMBLES (19-D.Turner), RECOVERED by LV-19-D.Turner at LAC 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.20 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model