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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 70

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 28

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to LV 24, Center-47-J.Harris. 3-D.Carter to LV 35 for 11 yards (40-S.Anderson; 47-J.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model