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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 51

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 35

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LAC 49 for no gain (5-D.Deablo, 90-J.Tillery). Penalty on LAC-7-G.Everett, Offensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.31 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 51, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model