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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 32

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 27-T.Sermon left end pushed ob at PIT 22 for 10 yards (20-P.Peterson).

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.96 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model