PIT @ IND — 4th & Data

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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin

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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen

Saturday 2023-12-16 · 16:30 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

PIT

45.0%

IND

55.0%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

PIT offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised
IND offense: -0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
PIT on 3 more days rest than IND
QB edge to PIT: Gardner Minshew (IND) -0.028 vs Mitchell Trubisky (PIT) -0.021 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PIT 20

–

IND 22

Projected margin: IND by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

PIT

Kenny Pickett QB Out Ankle

Isaac Seumalo G Questionable Shoulder

IND

Braden Smith T Out Knee

Jonathan Taylor RB Out Thumb

Segun Olubi LB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 13

–

IND 30

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 01:13 TD PIT (1:13) 10-M.Trubisky up the middle to IND 1 for no gain (45-E.Speed). FUMBLES (45-E.Speed), recovered by PIT-22-N.Harris at IND 1. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-M.Trubisky up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – IND 0
Q2 14:11 TD PIT (14:11) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 18-D.Johnson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 12 – IND 0
Q2 11:28 TD IND (11:28) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 21-Z.Moss for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-38-M.Walker, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced between downs. PIT 13 – IND 6
Q2 00:27 TD IND (:27) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 2-D.Montgomery for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – IND 13
Q3 13:22 TD IND (13:22) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – IND 20
Q3 09:05 FG IND (9:05) 7-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. PIT 13 – IND 24
Q4 09:20 FG IND (9:20) 7-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. PIT 13 – IND 27
Q4 00:52 FG IND (:52) 7-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. PIT 13 – IND 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 PIT 4th & 10 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(13:01) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to IND 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs to IND 31 for 11 yards (17-T.Thompson, 83-Co.Heyward).
Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 37

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 68%

(7:35) 7-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 1

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

(1:13) 10-M.Trubisky up the middle to IND 1 for no gain (45-E.Speed). FUMBLES (45-E.Speed), recovered by PIT-22-N.Harris at IND 1. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-M.Trubisky up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(15:00) 8-R.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by 83-Co.Heyward, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by PIT-51-Ni.Herbig at IND 1. 51-Ni.Herbig to IND 1 for no gain (20-N.Cross). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 32

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 67% p(FG) 78%

(6:21) 27-T.Sermon left end pushed ob at PIT 22 for 10 yards (20-P.Peterson).
Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 1

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

(3:27) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Montgomery.
Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 67

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 54%

(:54) 6-P.Harvin punts 55 yards to IND 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs to IND 26 for 14 yards (13-M.Boykin).
Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP

p(convert) 60%

(13:36) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds. 45-E.Speed reported in as ineligible.
Q3 PIT 4th & 12 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(11:21) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to IND 36, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs to IND 49 for 13 yards (87-R.Williams).
Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 11

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP

p(convert) 65% p(FG) 97%

(9:05) 7-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q3 PIT 4th & 14 at the 39

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 63%

(3:21) 6-P.Harvin punts 22 yards to IND 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.
Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 13

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

(9:20) 7-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 64

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP

p(convert) 34%

(6:40) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at IND 49 for 15 yards (40-J.Jones).
Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 25 late-game

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 88%

(2:12) 7-M.Gay 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 64 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(1:48) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph sacked at PIT 25 for -11 yards (52-S.Ebukam).
Q4 IND 4th & 9 at the 24 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 89%

(:52) 7-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.