4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 1

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(3:27) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Montgomery.

The Three Options

GO +3.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.94 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model