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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds. 45-E.Speed reported in as ineligible.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP