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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 77

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to IND 36, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs to IND 49 for 13 yards (87-R.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 77, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 34, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model