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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 64

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(1:48) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph sacked at PIT 25 for -11 yards (52-S.Ebukam).

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.47 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 64, worth -2.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 22, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model