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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Arizona Cardinals
4th & 1 at the 45
Arizona Cardinals 10 – San Francisco 49ers 14
What Actually Happened
(10:15) 6-J.Conner up the middle to SF 43 for 2 yards (5-R.Gregory).
The Three Options
GO
+1.31 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.08 EP
- 34% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.09 EP
KICK
-0.45 EP
- 47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
- 53% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT
-0.27 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.27 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
