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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2023-12-17 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US ☀️ Clear Spread -12.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

SF
74.2%
ARI
25.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.162 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Kyler Murray (ARI) -0.078 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.356 EPA/dropback
  • ARI offense: -0.194 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • ARI on 7 more days rest than SF
  • ARI defense: +0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 28
–
ARI 19
Projected margin: SF by 9 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

SF

Arik Armstead DT Out Foot
Oren Burks LB Out Knee
Ross Dwelley TE Out Ankle
Javon Hargrave DT Out Hamstring
Elijah Mitchell RB Out Knee
Aaron Banks G Questionable Hip
Spencer Burford G Questionable Knee
Dre Greenlaw LB Questionable Hip
Charvarius Ward CB Questionable Groin

ARI

Tyreke Smith LB Out not injury related - travel
Bobby Price CB Out Quadricep
Elijah Wilkinson G Questionable Neck
Krys Barnes LB Questionable Ribs
Marquise Brown WR Questionable Heel
Blake Gillikin P Questionable Back
Geoff Swaim TE Questionable Back
Michael Wilson WR Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 45
–
ARI 29

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 27 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:45 TD ARI (10:45) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – ARI 6
  • Q1 06:38 TD SF (6:38) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 19-D.Samuel for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – ARI 7
  • Q1 04:33 TD SF (4:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 7-C.Ward at SF 34. 7-C.Ward for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – ARI 7
  • Q2 14:15 FG ARI (14:15) 5-M.Prater 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. SF 14 – ARI 10
  • Q2 06:18 FG ARI (6:18) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. SF 14 – ARI 13
  • Q2 01:18 TD SF (1:18) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – ARI 13
  • Q3 13:28 TD SF (13:28) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 23-C.McCaffrey for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 27 – ARI 13
  • Q3 04:23 FG ARI (4:23) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. SF 28 – ARI 16
  • Q3 01:11 TD SF (1:11) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 34 – ARI 16
  • Q4 11:39 TD ARI (11:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 31-E.Demercado left guard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 35 – ARI 22
  • Q4 07:14 TD SF (7:14) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 19-D.Samuel for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 41 – ARI 22
  • Q4 03:12 FG SF (3:12) 4-J.Moody 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 45 – ARI 22
  • Q4 00:53 TD ARI (:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 84-E.Higgins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 45 – ARI 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 3 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 51%

    (4:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 7-C.Ward at SF 34. 7-C.Ward for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 56%

    (14:15) 5-M.Prater 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (12:40) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to ARI 31, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 31 for no gain (26-I.Oliver).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 43%

    (10:15) 6-J.Conner up the middle to SF 43 for 2 yards (5-R.Gregory).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 86%

    (6:18) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:03) 12-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to SF 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 10-R.Bell to SF 12 for 4 yards (83-G.Dortch). FUMBLES (83-G.Dortch), RECOVERED by ARI-32-J.Blount at SF 12. 32-J.Blount for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 12-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to SF 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 10-R.Bell to SF 12 for 4 yards (83-G.Dortch).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:46) 12-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to SF 31, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 10-R.Bell.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:49) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 56 yards to ARI 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-53-D.Winters.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (4:23) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 83-G.Dortch to SF 49 for 5 yards (57-D.Greenlaw).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:34) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to ARI 36 for 7 yards (31-T.Gipson). Penalty on SF-92-C.Young, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 86%

    (3:12) 4-J.Moody 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.