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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 25

Arizona Cardinals 10 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.46 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model