Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 81

Arizona Cardinals 13 – San Francisco 49ers 28

(11:46) 12-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to SF 31, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 10-R.Bell.

The Three Options

GO -3.01 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.82 EP
74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model