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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 9

Arizona Cardinals 13 – San Francisco 49ers 28

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model