Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 22 – San Francisco 49ers 42

What Actually Happened

(6:34) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to ARI 36 for 7 yards (31-T.Gipson). Penalty on SF-92-C.Young, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.45 EP
60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.59 EP