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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 42

Arizona Cardinals 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 7-C.Ward at SF 34. 7-C.Ward for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.53 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model