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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 18

Green Bay Packers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 17-A.Carlson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.13 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model