Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- GB offense: +0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- TB defense: +0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
TB
GB
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:06 FG TB (9:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 3 – GB 0
- Q1 00:54 TD GB (:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – GB 6
- Q2 12:26 TD TB (12:26) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 9 – GB 7
- Q2 07:13 FG GB (7:13) 17-A.Carlson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. TB 10 – GB 10
- Q2 00:14 FG TB (:14) 4-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 13 – GB 10
- Q3 11:01 TD TB (11:01) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – GB 10
- Q3 04:26 TD GB (4:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 11-J.Reed for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – GB 16
- Q3 00:26 TD TB (:26) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 41-K.Kieft for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 26 – GB 17
- Q4 10:07 FG GB (10:07) 17-A.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. TB 27 – GB 20
- Q4 06:40 TD TB (6:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 19-D.Moore for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TB 33 – GB 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TB 4th & 12 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 90%
(9:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
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Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%
(2:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Reed.
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Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 93%
(7:13) 17-A.Carlson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(5:44) 5-J.Camarda punts 65 yards to GB 4, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-38-D.Pitts.
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Q2 GB 4th & 11 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(2:19) 19-D.Whelan punts 43 yards to TB 11, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.
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Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 81%
(:14) 4-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
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Q3 GB 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(14:31) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to TB 21, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 34 for 13 yards (34-J.Owens).
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Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 95%
(10:07) 17-A.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 30 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 78%
(4:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at TB 49 for -19 yards (sack split by 7-S.Barrett and 54-L.David). FUMBLES (7-S.Barrett) [54-L.David], RECOVERED by TB-90-L.Hall at GB 49. 90-L.Hall to GB 49 for no gain (63-R.Walker).
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Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 41 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 52%
(3:25) (Shotgun) 1-R.White up the middle to GB 38 for 3 yards (97-K.Clark, 34-J.Owens).