Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 54

Green Bay Packers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

(2:19) 19-D.Whelan punts 43 yards to TB 11, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.25 EP
67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model