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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 28

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(:14) 4-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.71 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model