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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 72

Green Bay Packers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(14:31) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to TB 21, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 34 for 13 yards (34-J.Owens).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.20 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model