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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 15

Green Bay Packers 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 17-A.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.96 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model