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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 86

Washington Commanders 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(7:37) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to LA 47, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.77 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 86, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.44 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 44, worth -2.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP