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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2023-12-17 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

WAS
34.8%
LA
65.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • WAS on 7 more days rest than LA
  • Sam Howell (WAS): -0.071 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS defense: +0.120 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LA offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 20
–
LA 25
Projected margin: LA by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

WAS

Curtis Hodges TE Out Back
Brian Robinson RB Out Hamstring
James Smith-Williams DE Out Hamstring

LA

Aaron Donald DT Questionable Groin
Rob Havenstein T Questionable Groin
Tutu Atwell WR Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 20
–
LA 28

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:42 FG LA (7:42) 8-L.Havrisik 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans. WAS 0 – LA 3
  • Q2 02:23 TD LA (2:23) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – LA 9
  • Q2 00:06 FG LA (:06) 8-L.Havrisik 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans. WAS 0 – LA 13
  • Q3 14:16 TD LA (14:16) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 10-C.Kupp for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – LA 19
  • Q3 06:30 TD WAS (6:30) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep left to 4-C.Samuel for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – LA 20
  • Q4 13:31 TD LA (13:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-D.Robinson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – LA 26
  • Q4 07:24 TD WAS (7:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-J.Brissett pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – LA 28
  • Q4 01:50 TD WAS (1:50) (Shotgun) 12-J.Brissett pass short middle to 4-C.Samuel for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – LA 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (14:18) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to LA 19, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (7:42) 8-L.Havrisik 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 48%

    (2:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin to LA 21 for 24 yards (1-D.Kendrick).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 96%

    (:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short left to 82-L.Thomas (31-N.Hampton).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (7:37) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to LA 47, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:56) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to LA 28, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 18 at the 69
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 26%

    (:39) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way Aborted. 54-C.Cheeseman FUMBLES at WAS 24, touched at WAS 17, recovered by WAS-5-T.Way at WAS 15. WAS-5-T.Way was injured during the play.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (:06) 8-L.Havrisik 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 50%

    (10:34) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to LA 8, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 81-A.Trammell to LA 12 for 4 yards (34-C.Holmes; 2-D.Brown).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 13 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:26) 42-E.Evans punts 54 yards to WAS 37, Center-46-C.Tinker. 83-J.Crowder to LA 48 for 15 yards (18-B.Skowronek).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 58%

    (8:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin pushed ob at LA 24 for 17 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 43%

    (2:07) 42-E.Evans punts 38 yards to WAS 9, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by LA-18-B.Skowronek.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 6 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:25) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to LA 49, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-2-D.Brown.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%

    (9:10) 8-L.Havrisik 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:11) 42-E.Evans punts 42 yards to WAS 35, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 99%

    (1:50) (Shotgun) 12-J.Brissett pass short middle to 4-C.Samuel for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.