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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 9

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(:06) 8-L.Havrisik 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.98 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 9, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model