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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 47

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 42-E.Evans punts 38 yards to WAS 9, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by LA-18-B.Skowronek.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.41 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model