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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 45

Washington Commanders 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(2:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin to LA 21 for 24 yards (1-D.Kendrick).

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.85 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model