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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 12

Washington Commanders 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(:40) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short left to 82-L.Thomas (31-N.Hampton).

The Three Options

GO +3.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.93 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model