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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 74

Chicago Bears 21 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 16-T.Gill punts 40 yards to ARI 34, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-43-D.Gates.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model