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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
Sunday 2023-12-24 · 16:25 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

ARI
28.7%
CHI
71.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Justin Fields (CHI) -0.193 vs Kyler Murray (ARI) -0.086 EPA/dropback
  • CHI offense: -0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 17
–
CHI 25
Projected margin: CHI by 8 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

ARI

Marquise Brown WR Out Heel
Garrett Williams CB Out Knee
Bobby Price CB Out Quadricep
Andre Chachere S Questionable Shoulder
Victor Dimukeje LB Questionable Foot
Greg Dortch WR Questionable Shoulder
Antonio Hamilton CB Questionable Calf

CHI

Teven Jenkins T Out Concussion
Noah Sewell LB Out Knee
Equanimeous St. Brown WR Out Pectoral
D'Onta Foreman RB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Travis Homer RB Questionable Hamstring
Cole Kmet TE Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 16
–
CHI 27

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:22 TD CHI (6:22) 1-J.Fields scrambles left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – CHI 6
  • Q2 12:59 TD CHI (12:59) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert left tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – CHI 13
  • Q2 07:19 TD CHI (7:19) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 84-M.Lewis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – CHI 20
  • Q2 02:33 TD ARI (2:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 6-J.Conner for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – CHI 21
  • Q3 12:17 FG ARI (12:17) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 10 – CHI 21
  • Q3 01:08 FG CHI (1:08) 8-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. ARI 10 – CHI 24
  • Q4 06:48 TD ARI (6:48) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 83-G.Dortch for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – CHI 24
  • Q4 01:05 FG CHI (1:05) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. ARI 16 – CHI 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 26%

    (13:24) 16-T.Gill punts 44 yards to ARI 9, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-20-T.Homer.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 11 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:18) 12-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to CHI 26, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 32%

    (3:57) 12-B.Gillikin punts 40 yards to CHI 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:01) 12-B.Gillikin punts 36 yards to CHI 46, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-45-D.Gardeck.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:49) 16-T.Gill punts 40 yards to ARI 34, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-43-D.Gates.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 11 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:08) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to CHI 13, Center-46-A.Brewer. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 24 for 11 yards (32-J.Blount; 16-D.Chisena).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:27) 16-T.Gill punts 76 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 8 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 65%

    (12:17) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 16 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:58) 16-T.Gill punts 43 yards to ARI 19, Center-48-P.Scales. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 23 for 4 yards (31-Ja.Jones).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:49) 12-B.Gillikin punts 77 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 78%

    (1:08) 8-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (15:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to CHI 20, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:33) 16-T.Gill punts 57 yards to ARI 9, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-20-T.Homer.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 73 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:03) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 83-G.Dortch.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (1:05) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.