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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 67

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to CHI 13, Center-46-A.Brewer. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 24 for 11 yards (32-J.Blount; 16-D.Chisena).

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.88 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 25, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model