Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 76

Chicago Bears 21 – Arizona Cardinals 7

(:27) 16-T.Gill punts 76 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +0.77 EP
64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 76, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model