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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 37

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.02 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 37, worth -2.12 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model