4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 16 at the 62

Chicago Bears 21 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 16-T.Gill punts 43 yards to ARI 19, Center-48-P.Scales. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 23 for 4 yards (31-Ja.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.03 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model