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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 74

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to CHI 20, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 74, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 32, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model