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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 66

Chicago Bears 24 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 16-T.Gill punts 57 yards to ARI 9, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-20-T.Homer.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 24, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP