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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 11

Chicago Bears 24 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +3.51 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model