Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 67

Baltimore Ravens 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(14:06) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to SF 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 10-R.Bell.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.84 EP
59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 67, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model