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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Monday 2023-12-25 · 20:15 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

BAL
35.3%
SF
64.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.240 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.153 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Brock Purdy (SF): +0.401 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BAL defense: -0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 23
–
SF 27
Projected margin: SF by 4 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

BAL

Jalyn Armour-Davis CB Out Concussion
Arthur Maulet CB Out Knee
Zay Flowers WR Questionable Foot
Malik Hamm LB Questionable Ankle

SF

Arik Armstead DT Out Foot
Oren Burks LB Out Knee
Ross Dwelley TE Out Ankle
Jauan Jennings WR Out Concussion
Javon Hargrave DT Questionable Hamstring
Elijah Mitchell RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 33
–
SF 19

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:31 SAF SF (10:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on BAL-8-L.Jackson, Intentional Grounding, 20 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY. BAL 0 – SF 2
  • Q1 06:03 FG SF (6:03) 4-J.Moody 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. BAL 0 – SF 5
  • Q1 01:01 FG BAL (1:01) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 3 – SF 5
  • Q2 09:38 TD BAL (9:38) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – SF 5
  • Q2 07:07 FG BAL (7:07) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 13 – SF 5
  • Q2 03:29 TD SF (3:29) 23-C.McCaffrey left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – SF 11
  • Q2 00:04 FG BAL (:04) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 16 – SF 12
  • Q3 12:13 TD BAL (12:13) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 15-N.Agholor for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 22 – SF 12
  • Q3 11:52 TD BAL (11:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 29 – SF 12
  • Q3 02:43 FG BAL (2:43) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 33 – SF 12
  • Q4 06:23 TD SF (6:23) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 10-R.Bell for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 33 – SF 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:06) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to SF 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 10-R.Bell.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 83%

    (6:03) 4-J.Moody 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (1:01) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (9:38) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 13 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 88%

    (7:07) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:29) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 57 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-T.Pepper. 16-T.Wallace pushed ob at BAL 41 for 23 yards (24-J.Mason). PENALTY on SF-18-M.Wishnowsky, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 41.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:32) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to BAL 5, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-36-J.McNichols.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (2:43) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 41%

    (14:57) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to BAL 46 for -1 yards (32-M.Williams) [0-R.Smith].

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 54%

    (10:30) 11-J.Stout punts 30 yards to SF 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 10-R.Bell.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:45) 11-J.Stout punts 44 yards to SF 25, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-R.Bell to SF 36 for 11 yards (30-T.Simpson).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 9 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:50) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 19-D.Samuel to SF 46 for 9 yards (44-M.Humphrey; 58-M.Pierce). Baltimore challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q4 SF 4th & 17 at the 17 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (1:09) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Williams at BAL 0. 32-M.Williams to BAL 22 for 22 yards (78-B.Bartch).