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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 23

Baltimore Ravens 10 – San Francisco 49ers 5

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.05 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model