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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 6

Baltimore Ravens 30 – San Francisco 49ers 12

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP